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Report

Paving a Credible Investment Pathway to Net Zero for Oil and Gas

By Paasha Mahdavi · 2022

There is little doubt that oil and gas firms face an existential threat from the energy transition.

In one of its net zero scenarios, the IEA—long viewed as an ally to energy incumbents—forecasts that fossil fuels will only account for 20% of the world’s total energy supply in 2050, down from 80% in 2020. Despite their own public rhetoric, investor-owned oil and gas companies are fully cognizant of the inevitability of a carbon-constrained world.

This contribution to public consultation on investment treaties and climate change evaluates existing debates around oil and gas transition plans. Firms are moving forward with climate transition plans out of a combination of financial interest, shareholder pressure, and self-survival to ensure a continued role in regulating the energy industry.

Key takeaways

  • The industry sees transition plans as necessary for long-term survival. Yet not all firms agree on strategy: some invest in renewables and electrification, while others see carbon dioxide reduction technologies as pathways to continued use of petroleum.
  • Criteria used to assess the credibility of transition plans within the oil and gas sector suffer from considerable inconsistencies. Reporting standards are voluntary or driven by private sector actors, limiting the level of detail needed for accurate monitoring and evaluation.

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