The 2035 Initiative

We conducted a county-wide public opinion survey, demographic analysis of the oil and gas workforce, and in-depth worker interviews, and modeled both job losses and potential clean-economy job gains. Working closely with labor groups, environmental justice organizations, and local environmental nonprofits, we translated these findings into concrete policy recommendations.

What we found

Phasing out oil and gas operations could prevent an estimated $54 to $81 million in mortality-related costs and avoid $21.8 million in climate damages by 2045, with limited economic impact. There is strong county support for both prohibiting new oil and gas operations (64.9%) and phasing out existing operations (59.5%). Residents prefer a policy that supports affected workers — up to ~15 percentage points more likely to support a policy that contains a job program for workers.

We developed engineering models to simulate electrification pathways across nearly 800 of the largest U.S. manufacturing plants, paired with an interactive web tool for policymakers and facility managers. We then took the framework to the state level — presenting to policymakers and stakeholders in a dozen states and contributing analysis to rulemaking at the South Coast Air Quality Management District and the California Air Resources Board. In Minnesota, we worked with Fresh Energy on a state-specific roadmap for the legislature and Public Utilities Commission; in Pennsylvania, we partnered with the governor's office to convene industrial facilities, clean-heat manufacturers, and data centers around electrification and waste-heat re-use.

With UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, and an advisory board of community-based nonprofits, we surveyed California households to understand barriers to electrification and clean-technology adoption, with a focus on disadvantaged communities. We used that data to model future adoption scenarios, design community microgrid configurations, and analyze how grids can remain resilient under extreme weather — and examined how distributed energy could generate revenue for disadvantaged communities.

What we found

Current adoption of clean technologies like EVs, heat pumps, solar-plus-storage, and induction stoves is low (5–10%), but interest is high. Subsidies can unlock significant demand, though information gaps and lack of familiarity remain real barriers. The adoption gap is especially pronounced for EVs, and meeting California's targets will require proactive infrastructure investment in disadvantaged communities, not just incentives.